In Tulum, the number you hear most often at the sales office is a double-digit annual return. Ten, twelve, fourteen percent. It comes on a sheet with the development’s logo and a five-year projection table.
That figure isn’t made up. It’s intentionally miscalculated: based on the wrong denominator and without the expenses that do exist. Let’s redo the math with a real unit from our catalog.
First, the uncomfortable fact
Of the 45 Tulum properties we have listed, none substantiates its return with account statements. Not even ours. What circulates as ROI in this market comes from the developer’s pro forma, which is a projection, not a track record. When someone shows you 12%, the right question isn’t “where does it come from?”, it’s “can you show it to me in the platform report for the last twelve months?”.
The brochure math
Let’s take a condo from our catalog: 125.000 dólares, 45
m², Región 15. A typical projection is built like this:
- Nightly rate: 150 USD.
- Occupancy: 70%, i.e., 255 nights.
- Gross annual revenue: 38.250 USD.
- Declared expenses: 60% of gross stays… no, the brochure usually shows only management, at 20%.
- Presented result: 30.600 USD on 125.000 =
24%. And since that sounds unbelievable, it’s “conservatively” trimmed to 12%.
12% seems prudent precisely because it was born from an impossible number. That’s the mechanics.
The full math, with the same unit
The assumptions below are ours and stated; they are not that unit’s data. They’re here to show where the money goes:
The base isn’t 125.000. On price you have to add closing costs in Quintana Roo, between 5% and 8% with fideicomiso included, and furniture for vacation rental, from 8.000 to 15.000 dólares. Your real cash in lands between
139.000 and 150.000 USD. Let’s use 145.000.
Occupancy isn’t 70%. A steady 70% year-round is 255 nights: in low season in the Caribe mexicano, with slow September and October, that number doesn’t hold unless you’re in buildings with professional management and several years of reviews. A realistic working occupancy is between 45% and 55%: say 180 nights.
The average rate isn’t the high-season rate. If you get 150 in high season, the year-round average with low season included looks closer to 110.
- Gross income: 180 × 110 = 19.800 USD.
- Platform fee (3% to 15% depending on the model) and management (15% to 25% under an exclusive contract): −5.900 USD approximately.
- Cleanings between stays, electricity, water, internet: −2.400 USD.
- Condo maintenance fee, 120 USD per month:
−1.440 USD. - Property tax, insurance, and in-unit maintenance:
−1.100 USD. - Net: 8.960 USD per year.
On the 145.000 of actual cash in, that’s a 6,2% net. On the 125.000 from the ad it would be 7,2%, which is the number sometimes published as “conservative.”
A 6% net in dollars, in an asset that can also appreciate, is a good deal. You don’t need 12% for it to be one. What you do need is for the buyer to know which of the two numbers they’re actually going to collect.
The five questions that dismantle any pro forma
- What base is that percentage calculated on: list price or total investment including closing costs and furnishings?
- What occupancy does it assume and where does that number come from? If the answer is “the area average,” ask for the building’s.
- Is it net of commission, management, cleaning, maintenance, property tax, and insurance? Have them point out each line.
- How many similar units are in the same development? Forty identical studios compete with each other and pull everyone’s rate down.
- Can you show me the last twelve months’ report from a unit already operating? That question ends most conversations. The ones that continue are worth having.
What we do with this
We don’t publish returns on listings because we can’t substantiate them. We publish price, floor area, zone, and delivery status, which are verifiable. When a development provides occupancy history, we ask for it and pass it along as is, without rounding up.
If you have a pro forma on the table with a double-digit return,
send it to us: we’ll return the same table with the base corrected and the expenses included so you can compare the two.
Verifiable data: our own catalog at inversionesdemexico.com reviewed on September 30,
2026, 45 properties in Tulum, none with returns substantiated by account statements. All rate, occupancy, commissions, and expense figures in this article are declared working assumptions to illustrate the calculation structure: they do not correspond to a specific unit nor do they constitute a performance projection. Always request the numbers in writing from the developer or the manager.
Versión en español: El ROI del 12% que promete el desarrollador de Tulum no es el que cobras · Versão em português: Os 12% de ROI prometidos em Tulum não são o que você recebe · Version française: Les 12 % promis par le promoteur de Tulum, vous ne les touchez pas
