Most write-ups about investing in Tulum keep repeating the 2023 figures. We went to the English sources and Quintana Roo’s official data to see what’s really happening in 2026. The result isn’t what we expected, and it’s better than it looks at first glance — but for a different reason than what’s usually being sold.
First, the numbers no one puts in the brochure
Quintana Roo’s official tourism monitoring system places hotel occupancy in Tulum at 66,18% in the first half of 2026, versus 74,32% in the same period of 2025. The annual decline started earlier: from 73,8% in 2024 to 69,1% in 2025.
Tulum also fell more than its region. The Riviera Maya went from 76,63% to 72,77% over the same period, a drop of 3,87 points. Tulum’s decline was more than double that.
The airport tells the same story. In the first half of 2026 passenger numbers fell by around 33%, and international passengers by nearly 41%. Improved accessibility at the terminal didn’t produce the automatic growth many real estate projections assumed.
And for short-term rentals, the annualized occupancy typical for an Airbnb listing in Tulum is around 44% to 48% as of early 2026. Apartment rents have fallen about 5,6% since early 2025, while asking prices have barely budged, down only about 2%.
Why that is exactly what a buyer wanted to see
An investor wins or loses on the entry price, not the headline that convinces them to buy that day. And the entry price in Tulum moved for the first time in years.
The underlying issue is inventory saturation: developers launched hundreds of projects at once, targeting the same buyer profile, with nearly identical product and undifferentiated locations. Between 50% and 60% of Tulum’s residential listings in 2026 are new build or presale.
The consequence is measurable: developers began offering discounts of 20% to 35% to generate liquidity. And in resale there’s something even more interesting — investors who bought on promised returns that didn’t materialize and now want out. A motivated seller is the best buying condition there is.
To put it in perspective: the average price of a residential property in Tulum is around 5,8 millones de pesos, about 310.000 dollars. The price per square meter in condos averages near 46.000 pesos, and beachfront exceeds 90.000.
What’s already funded and coming
Here’s the difference between a destination in trouble and a destination at the bottom of its cycle: the catalyst already exists and is funded.
- The federal government launched «Tulum Renace», a strategy of 128 actions to reorganize the destination, strengthen infrastructure and attract higher-value tourism.
- Five international air routes return from Canada and the United States — Toronto, Montreal, Quebec, Calgary and Newark — for the winter season, starting late October 2026.
- Mexicana de AviaciĂłn adds eight domestic flights for the summer 2026 season.
- There is a multimillion-dollar strategy against sargassum, new health infrastructure and the development of Faena Tulum.
- New access points to the Parque Nacional del Jaguar have opened, including four protected beaches, and public access to Playa Conchitas and Playa del Pueblo has been expanded.
The thesis, in one line
In 2023 you paid a high price for a promise. In 2026 you buy cheaply into a destination with a funded recovery plan and confirmed air connectivity on the calendar. It’s not the same trade — and the latter is the one that has historically made money.
Five questions before you sign
- Is the location genuinely differentiated? Excess supply punishes generic product. What competes with three hundred identical units is what doesn’t rent.
- Are the performance numbers they give me real or projected? If they promise 70% occupancy, compare that to the 44-48% the market averages today.
- How long has the developer had that unit unsold? That’s where your negotiation margin is, and today it’s wider than ever.
- Resale or presale? Resale delivers now and often has a motivated seller; presale depends on the developer completing in a market with less liquidity.
- Does the project solve water and sewage? That’s the issue the federal strategy came to fix, and the one that separates developments that survive the reorganization from those that don’t.
What we would do today
Buying in Tulum in 2026 makes sense for someone with a three- to five-year horizon, who negotiates over stagnant inventory and chooses a differentiated location. It doesn’t make sense for someone who needs the unit to pay for itself from month one: short-term rental numbers don’t support that yet.
If you’re evaluating a specific property and want us to review the figures you were presented with before you sign, write to us. It’s the part of the process where an informed buyer saves the most money.
Sources consulted: Quintana Roo’s tourism monitoring system, Mexico News Daily, Tourism Analytics, Travel And Tour World, Riviera Maya News and market analysis from TheLatinvestor and The Wandering Investor. Data as of septiembre de 2026; free plans and occupancy figures are updated by season.
